I get more and more the feeling OWL will be a fluke, a forced esport game never had success so far and they force overwatch way to fast to be something it probably will never be.
we never really had more than a 30k constant viewership during big tournaments.
even though I want OWL to have success in e-sport its just unimaginable at this point for me.
in my opinion they gamble way to hight but whats your guys opinion on this league ??
i dont see OWL havin success mayb it will be fancy will have nice venues and nice production but the viewership will lack big time. and i have a feeling if OWL will fail, overwatch will fail in general.
pretty much the same stuff that happened to HoTs hyped to be the next LoL / Dota and then after first season of a big league no one actually gave a crap about it.
Well, if the world cup gets an average of 30,000 viewers from all around the world, then European viewership is screwed, since, you know, they have one OWL city in the entire continent.
As for Korea and China, apex gets their stadiums filled pretty well, i don't think Korean and Chinese viewership will be an issue, especially since China has such a huge population.
Lastly, America, with 9 OWL teams, two of which are based in Los Angeles, which already cuts down on viewership. I get Seagull is popular, but are you really going to drive all the way to Dallas just to watch him play? I live near Miami, so i may go to an event durring the summer, but right now i have no idea where the stadium is or when it opens or anything really.
Not to mention it's literally killing most of the scene, how many people have retired in the past few months compared to the entire past year? MESR, TwoEasy, Luna, Curious, that's off the top of my head, compared to like what? One? Gingerpop?
Also, who's going to say "OMG i love the rivalry between LA and LA" i get they'll have different names, but no other major sport does this, it's confusing, and since we have 4 on the east coast, two in the south, and 3 in the west, two of which are in the sane city, what about the northern states, this only covers 8, what about the others? Hawaii? Alaska? Even the entire country of Canada don't have one close enough to ride to on a moose, it's just a mess, the lack if information will surely kill it.
The only reason the 30k viewers will grow is because of aome sort of cosmetic reward, which is why we'd almost never play HOTS until we were promised skins, and not having a loyal viewership is bad, the OW team can only make so many skins, and even if they commit, the events will be ruined. Besides, no ome wants 12 basic genji skins with a different color pallet. Unless they really fix spectatorship, and make some sort of reason for us to watch, no one will be interested except the people nearby OWL teams.
ThisOldDog [#8]Well, if the world cup gets an average of 30,000 viewers from all around the world, then European viewership is screwed, since, you know, they have one OWL city in the entire continent.
As for Korea and China, apex gets their stadiums filled pretty well, i don't think Korean and Chinese viewership will be an issue, especially since China has such a huge population.
Lastly, America, with 9 OWL teams, two of which are based in Los Angeles, which already cuts down on viewership. I get Seagull is popular, but are you really going to drive all the way to Dallas just to watch him play? I live near Miami, so i may go to an event durring the summer, but right now i have no idea where the stadium is or when it opens or anything really.
Not to mention it's literally killing most of the scene, how many people have retired in the past few months compared to the entire past year? MESR, TwoEasy, Luna, Curious, that's off the top of my head, compared to like what? One? Gingerpop?
Also, who's going to say "OMG i love the rivalry between LA and LA" i get they'll have different names, but no other major sport does this, it's confusing, and since we have 4 on the east coast, two in the south, and 3 in the west, two of which are in the sane city, what about the northern states, this only covers 8, what about the others? Hawaii? Alaska? Even the entire country of Canada don't have one close enough to ride to on a moose, it's just a mess, the lack if information will surely kill it.
The only reason the 30k viewers will grow is because of aome sort of cosmetic reward, which is why we'd almost never play HOTS until we were promised skins, and not having a loyal viewership is bad, the OW team can only make so many skins, and even if they commit, the events will be ruined. Besides, no ome wants 12 basic genji skins with a different color pallet. Unless they really fix spectatorship, and make some sort of reason for us to watch, no one will be interested except the people nearby OWL teams.
owc will easily have over 100k viewers (talking about combined national streams on twitch) for more on owc viewership go see my threads about it during qualifiers
while yes lately a lot of players retired its not scene dying and there were players retiring always (for example internethulk from the top of my head)
you seriously think eu wont watch coz they have only 1 city? there are more eu esport viewers than in na
ThisOldDog [#8]Well, if the world cup gets an average of 30,000 viewers from all around the world, then European viewership is screwed, since, you know, they have one OWL city in the entire continent.
As for Korea and China, apex gets their stadiums filled pretty well, i don't think Korean and Chinese viewership will be an issue, especially since China has such a huge population.
Lastly, America, with 9 OWL teams, two of which are based in Los Angeles, which already cuts down on viewership. I get Seagull is popular, but are you really going to drive all the way to Dallas just to watch him play? I live near Miami, so i may go to an event durring the summer, but right now i have no idea where the stadium is or when it opens or anything really.
Not to mention it's literally killing most of the scene, how many people have retired in the past few months compared to the entire past year? MESR, TwoEasy, Luna, Curious, that's off the top of my head, compared to like what? One? Gingerpop?
Also, who's going to say "OMG i love the rivalry between LA and LA" i get they'll have different names, but no other major sport does this, it's confusing, and since we have 4 on the east coast, two in the south, and 3 in the west, two of which are in the sane city, what about the northern states, this only covers 8, what about the others? Hawaii? Alaska? Even the entire country of Canada don't have one close enough to ride to on a moose, it's just a mess, the lack if information will surely kill it.
The only reason the 30k viewers will grow is because of aome sort of cosmetic reward, which is why we'd almost never play HOTS until we were promised skins, and not having a loyal viewership is bad, the OW team can only make so many skins, and even if they commit, the events will be ruined. Besides, no ome wants 12 basic genji skins with a different color pallet. Unless they really fix spectatorship, and make some sort of reason for us to watch, no one will be interested except the people nearby OWL teams.
Except they are fixing spectator mode, and they're gonna have incentives for non e-sports fans to watch, unless you haven't been paying attention for the last few months.
It'll get viewers.
Pixelfish [#10]Except they are fixing spectator mode, and they're gonna have incentives for non e-sports fans to watch, unless you haven't been paying attention for the last few months.
It'll get viewers.
it already did, it had more viewers than he says during both owc qualifiers and contenders
ThisOldDog [#8]Well, if the world cup gets an average of 30,000 viewers from all around the world, then European viewership is screwed, since, you know, they have one OWL city in the entire continent.
As for Korea and China, apex gets their stadiums filled pretty well, i don't think Korean and Chinese viewership will be an issue, especially since China has such a huge population.
Lastly, America, with 9 OWL teams, two of which are based in Los Angeles, which already cuts down on viewership. I get Seagull is popular, but are you really going to drive all the way to Dallas just to watch him play? I live near Miami, so i may go to an event durring the summer, but right now i have no idea where the stadium is or when it opens or anything really.
Not to mention it's literally killing most of the scene, how many people have retired in the past few months compared to the entire past year? MESR, TwoEasy, Luna, Curious, that's off the top of my head, compared to like what? One? Gingerpop?
Also, who's going to say "OMG i love the rivalry between LA and LA" i get they'll have different names, but no other major sport does this, it's confusing, and since we have 4 on the east coast, two in the south, and 3 in the west, two of which are in the sane city, what about the northern states, this only covers 8, what about the others? Hawaii? Alaska? Even the entire country of Canada don't have one close enough to ride to on a moose, it's just a mess, the lack if information will surely kill it.
The only reason the 30k viewers will grow is because of aome sort of cosmetic reward, which is why we'd almost never play HOTS until we were promised skins, and not having a loyal viewership is bad, the OW team can only make so many skins, and even if they commit, the events will be ruined. Besides, no ome wants 12 basic genji skins with a different color pallet. Unless they really fix spectatorship, and make some sort of reason for us to watch, no one will be interested except the people nearby OWL teams.
About the Rivalry within a City, in "real" sports that happens quite often in Football/Soccer, for example Manchester City/United, Real/Athletico Madrid, 1890/Bayern Munich and Arsenal London/FC Chelsea^^
I'm unsure if they are even concerned that they make a profit. It just seems like the money being sunk into these things is either just to own a team for the fun of it or the love of the sports and esports teams alike.
If anything its one of those early investments that could pay off huge but is not likely to at all in the short term.
So when we talk about failure it kindof depends on what the criteria for failure are. Will they shut down if the only have 30k viewers initally? Not likely. Will they invest another round or two of big money into OWL if they have to? Likely. Would it be awesome to go to a OWL game in person? I'd fuckin go in a heartbeat if I was in town. Might even travel if I got really jazzed on it.
Trust me I don't fully like the direction OWL has gone but overwatch is in my opinion the best game right now for esports (cough, after they fix mercy). Its about that man. Its about the love of the game. And perhaps barring a few uninformed investors, anyone who put money in knew it was a big risk and did so anyway.
when bliz starts attaching lootboxes and skins to viewership and competition, people will watch. People will attend. People will pay. Blizzard could sell a pile of dog shit on its estore for 100 bucks and millions of people would buy it. and THEY DO, you ever played Heroes of the Storm? (I know they don't sell it)
remiska [#9]owc will easily have over 100k viewers (talking about combined national streams on twitch) for more on owc viewership go see my threads about it during qualifiers
while yes lately a lot of players retired its not scene dying and there were players retiring always (for example internethulk from the top of my head)
you seriously think eu wont watch coz they have only 1 city? there are more eu esport viewers than in na
My point is the actual live events, from what i understand, each city has their own arena so, if there's only one arena in Europe, and someone from Germany want to watch live, they're not going to drive that far, so Blizzard is missing out on their money, and all the merch for their teams they'd buy, they can just watch on Twitch for free instead, same thing for the other 3 continents, Australia, Africa, and South America, what about those fans? Blizz are missing a large market.
Basically, the cities are in pretty bad locations for fans who want to go to the events, and if the crowds don't fill up, then there's no point, sure, you get a portion from ads on Twitch, but that won't pay for a multimillion dollar project like this, even if they keep consistent 100k viewers.
I don't know where you live, but even if you live close to one of the cities, realistically how many times will you go to the events, lets for reference say they're 30$ a ticket, for example, sure, I'd go once just for the experience, but will you revisit? If so how many times? How far away is it? Etc. If you've seen a match, you've seen them all, you won't pay 30$ to go again, or at least the average fan and OW player won't.
Sure, you want to support your team, but it certainly won't have a viewership of dedicated fans like football, most adults (most) won't understand and won't invest in it. So if the main group you want to earn money from are 13-25, then if 13-18's parents aren't invested and don't care, they won't go to events consistently, also, if the meta gets stale, if there are no new heroes for 4 months, no new maps or game modes either, people will get bored and will stop paying to go and in like 10 years, the viewers will be scarce, except for the diehards, obviously they'll be there, even someone who doesn't know/like football can go and enjoy it, i don't know if it'll be the same way with OW.
Of course i have faith in Blizzard, but there are alot of ways this could go wrong if they don't handle it perfectly. If it isn't a huge success, other people or sponsors or teams won't invest, then viewers won't watch, it can all crash down if we don't succeed in season 1. Obviously they'll make money, but i don't know if it'll be that big of a success.
Pixelfish [#10]Except they are fixing spectator mode, and they're gonna have incentives for non e-sports fans to watch, unless you haven't been paying attention for the last few months.
It'll get viewers.
You don't get my point, people won't spend 2-3 hours watching OWL for a free basic recolor of a skin. They might once for their favorite hero, but they won't be loyal, like how after ppl went from OW to HOTS and 99% uninstalled and went back to playing OW and will never play hots again. There are a few ways Blizz can handle this
1) Give free basic recolors of the team you are watching
Pros: Easy to do, doesn't take long
Cons: People won't watch consistently and not multiple times
2) Spend tons of time making awesome skins
Pros: people will watch, repeatedly
Cons: its a lot of time to invest, takes away from events and in game content
3) Giving loot boxes/ gold loot box
Pros: some people will watch
Cons: some people won't do it because it's nothing unique, they can just play
4) nothing
Pros: nothing
Cons: nothing
Generation1 [#14]when bliz starts attaching lootboxes and skins to viewership and competition, people will watch. People will attend. People will pay. Blizzard could sell a pile of dog shit on its estore for 100 bucks and millions of people would buy it. and THEY DO, you ever played Heroes of the Storm? (I know they don't sell it)
Yeah, but the viewers aren't loyal, after people got the skin from HOTS, 99% never played it again.
ThisOldDog [#15]My point is the actual live events, from what i understand, each city has their own arena so, if there's only one arena in Europe, and someone from Germany want to watch live, they're not going to drive that far, so Blizzard is missing out on their money, and all the merch for their teams they'd buy, they can just watch on Twitch for free instead, same thing for the other 3 continents, Australia, Africa, and South America, what about those fans? Blizz are missing a large market.
Basically, the cities are in pretty bad locations for fans who want to go to the events, and if the crowds don't fill up, then there's no point, sure, you get a portion from ads on Twitch, but that won't pay for a multimillion dollar project like this, even if they keep consistent 100k viewers.
I don't know where you live, but even if you live close to one of the cities, realistically how many times will you go to the events, lets for reference say they're 30$ a ticket, for example, sure, I'd go once just for the experience, but will you revisit? If so how many times? How far away is it? Etc. If you've seen a match, you've seen them all, you won't pay 30$ to go again, or at least the average fan and OW player won't.
Sure, you want to support your team, but it certainly won't have a viewership of dedicated fans like football, most adults (most) won't understand and won't invest in it. So if the main group you want to earn money from are 13-25, then if 13-18's parents aren't invested and don't care, they won't go to events consistently, also, if the meta gets stale, if there are no new heroes for 4 months, no new maps or game modes either, people will get bored and will stop paying to go and in like 10 years, the viewers will be scarce, except for the diehards, obviously they'll be there, even someone who doesn't know/like football can go and enjoy it, i don't know if it'll be the same way with OW.
Of course i have faith in Blizzard, but there are alot of ways this could go wrong if they don't handle it perfectly. If it isn't a huge success, other people or sponsors or teams won't invest, then viewers won't watch, it can all crash down if we don't succeed in season 1. Obviously they'll make money, but i don't know if it'll be that big of a success.
mate first you need to know what youre talking about, there is 1 arena, in la same as for contenders its about 200-300 sits - blizzards esports arena and at least for season 1 it all will take place there (and season 1 is going to be long i dont remamber right now exactly how long but likehalf a year?) so doesnt really matter which city is team from coz they will all stay and play in la
13-25 age group is one that soon will or is working and much more likely to spend money than older people thats why its a great group for companies to target commercials at
yes people wont go to arenas like in traditional sport but like i already discussed somewhere esport is global you can be fan of team from across the world and thats something that might happen to real sports too
no, not everyone can enjoy football (not really sure which football youre talking about though) most people can because its so well known game but for example i dont like watching football, its slow and boring and no one from my family likes it, its usually comes from one generation to other, also the most popular esport lol can also be described the way you described ow > if the meta gets stale, if there are no new heroes for 4 months, no new maps or game modes either, people will get bored and will stop paying to go and in like 10 years, the viewers will be scarce, except for the diehards, obviously they'll be there, even someone who doesn't know/like football can go and enjoy it, i don't know if it'll be the same way with OW.
but still most specialist predict lol, and other esports will grow
and read my comment here: https://www.over.gg/6050/how-will-owl-affect-overwatch-esports-if-it-fails#2
on wy owl will not fail no matter what
remiska [#18]mate first you need to know what youre talking about, there is 1 arena, in la same as for contenders its about 200-300 sits - blizzards esports arena and at least for season 1 it all will take place there (and season 1 is going to be long i dont remamber right now exactly how long but likehalf a year?) so doesnt really matter which city is team from coz they will all stay and play in la
13-25 age group is one that soon will or is working and much more likely to spend money than older people thats why its a great group for companies to target commercials at
yes people wont go to arenas like in traditional sport but like i already discussed somewhere esport is global you can be fan of team from across the world and thats something that might happen to real sports too
no, not everyone can enjoy football (not really sure which football youre talking about though) most people can because its so well known game but for example i dont like watching football, its slow and boring and no one from my family likes it, its usually comes from one generation to other, also the most popular esport lol can also be described the way you described ow > if the meta gets stale, if there are no new heroes for 4 months, no new maps or game modes either, people will get bored and will stop paying to go and in like 10 years, the viewers will be scarce, except for the diehards, obviously they'll be there, even someone who doesn't know/like football can go and enjoy it, i don't know if it'll be the same way with OW.
but still most specialist predict lol, and other esports will grow
and read my comment here: https://www.over.gg/6050/how-will-owl-affect-overwatch-esports-if-it-fails#2
on wy owl will not fail no matter what
Pretty sure in the future each city will get their own arena, like a home, in each city, obviously it's going to be big when it starts, but it won't be anywhere near the NFL level where advertisers pay millions to just get a 30 second ad, obviously it will succeed but years into the future it will slowly go under the radar, but i can't argue with many of your points, we'll just have to see, i really hope it will succeed i'm a huge fan, and i love the game, but i don't have very high expectations in the long term.
ThisOldDog [#19]Pretty sure in the future each city will get their own arena, like a home, in each city, obviously it's going to be big when it starts, but it won't be anywhere near the NFL level where advertisers pay millions to just get a 30 second ad, obviously it will succeed but years into the future it will slowly go under the radar, but i can't argue with many of your points, we'll just have to see, i really hope it will succeed i'm a huge fan, and i love the game, but i don't have very high expectations in the long term.
real sports have ver VERY few games compared to esports thats why they can have home arenas and while eventually owl cities will probably have their "home arena" i would expect them to have simillar format to this season
maybe divide season into few underseasons each played in different city but for sure not every other game in different city
also lately companies started waking up and realising they dont need to pay so much for commercials and its not only youtube actually commercials rate are droping all over the board
ThisOldDog [#17]Yeah, but the viewers aren't loyal, after people got the skin from HOTS, 99% never played it again.
With 25 heroes they could give you a lootbox with on guaranteed skin for one of the teams in play each match. With 12 teams that's 300 skins, so at least 300 matches before you get them all.
On top of any new teams/skins that come in later on or specials skins etc. Even if the viewers weren't loyal that's still a lot. And who knows, some of them might just stick around to to play the game if the viewing experience was worth it.
I'm not saying it's a guaranteed success but it could be a thing.
ThisOldDog [#8]Well, if the world cup gets an average of 30,000 viewers from all around the world, then European viewership is screwed, since, you know, they have one OWL city in the entire continent.
As for Korea and China, apex gets their stadiums filled pretty well, i don't think Korean and Chinese viewership will be an issue, especially since China has such a huge population.
Lastly, America, with 9 OWL teams, two of which are based in Los Angeles, which already cuts down on viewership. I get Seagull is popular, but are you really going to drive all the way to Dallas just to watch him play? I live near Miami, so i may go to an event durring the summer, but right now i have no idea where the stadium is or when it opens or anything really.
Not to mention it's literally killing most of the scene, how many people have retired in the past few months compared to the entire past year? MESR, TwoEasy, Luna, Curious, that's off the top of my head, compared to like what? One? Gingerpop?
Also, who's going to say "OMG i love the rivalry between LA and LA" i get they'll have different names, but no other major sport does this, it's confusing, and since we have 4 on the east coast, two in the south, and 3 in the west, two of which are in the sane city, what about the northern states, this only covers 8, what about the others? Hawaii? Alaska? Even the entire country of Canada don't have one close enough to ride to on a moose, it's just a mess, the lack if information will surely kill it.
The only reason the 30k viewers will grow is because of aome sort of cosmetic reward, which is why we'd almost never play HOTS until we were promised skins, and not having a loyal viewership is bad, the OW team can only make so many skins, and even if they commit, the events will be ruined. Besides, no ome wants 12 basic genji skins with a different color pallet. Unless they really fix spectatorship, and make some sort of reason for us to watch, no one will be interested except the people nearby OWL teams.
While I disagree with the decision to put two teams in Los Angeles, it's not a valid argument to say it's not in other major sports and doesn't work. The NBA has two teams in New York and two teams in Los Angeles, with the LA teams sharing the same stadium. The NFL has two teams in New York that share a stadium plus two Los Angeles teams. The MLB has two teams in New York, Chicago, and Los Angeles, all of which play in different stadiums and play in exciting rivalry games. The NHL has two New York teams, as well. In the English Premier League, I know there are several teams based in and around London, and two of the most popular teams share Manchester.
For a truly global league beginning with only 12 teams, I agree it doesn't make sense. However the idea that it's confusing for a spectator and is rarely done isn't true, and in fact has been proven to work out just fine.
The question itself has been asked more times than we can count, and continuously asking it after every new piece of new is unlikely to change people's opinions or even yield useful information, imo.
Will it fail? We don't know, no one knows, maybe it will, maybe it won't. The game itself is unlikely to die off even if OWL does fail considering the large casual audience it carries but if your goal is to point out issues with the game you can feel free to discuss those directly.
How does one evaluate success or failure? Does your view of success equal what the investors see as a success? Is Richard Lewis' opinion more important than the ones of the people who decided to invest the ridiculously high franchising fee? What are viewership targets? Is the 10-100k views the game's been getting what Blizz and co. are expecting to get?
I don't know, I don't have the professional or technical knowledge to know. Feel free to be the greatest armchair expert you can, personally I can do nothing more than express why I think it could either succeed or fail, without making statements I don't have the data to back up.
tl;dr: Who the fuck knows, it's all opinions anyways so it doesn't really matter what we think.
Edit: Oh, and don't get butt hurt over some other internet person disagreeing with you.
ThisOldDog [#8]Well, if the world cup gets an average of 30,000 viewers from all around the world, then European viewership is screwed, since, you know, they have one OWL city in the entire continent.
As for Korea and China, apex gets their stadiums filled pretty well, i don't think Korean and Chinese viewership will be an issue, especially since China has such a huge population.
Lastly, America, with 9 OWL teams, two of which are based in Los Angeles, which already cuts down on viewership. I get Seagull is popular, but are you really going to drive all the way to Dallas just to watch him play? I live near Miami, so i may go to an event durring the summer, but right now i have no idea where the stadium is or when it opens or anything really.
Not to mention it's literally killing most of the scene, how many people have retired in the past few months compared to the entire past year? MESR, TwoEasy, Luna, Curious, that's off the top of my head, compared to like what? One? Gingerpop?
Also, who's going to say "OMG i love the rivalry between LA and LA" i get they'll have different names, but no other major sport does this, it's confusing, and since we have 4 on the east coast, two in the south, and 3 in the west, two of which are in the sane city, what about the northern states, this only covers 8, what about the others? Hawaii? Alaska? Even the entire country of Canada don't have one close enough to ride to on a moose, it's just a mess, the lack if information will surely kill it.
The only reason the 30k viewers will grow is because of aome sort of cosmetic reward, which is why we'd almost never play HOTS until we were promised skins, and not having a loyal viewership is bad, the OW team can only make so many skins, and even if they commit, the events will be ruined. Besides, no ome wants 12 basic genji skins with a different color pallet. Unless they really fix spectatorship, and make some sort of reason for us to watch, no one will be interested except the people nearby OWL teams.
Also, lots of traditional sports have two teams in the same city. LA has two basketball teams, and NY has had multiple baseball teams for years.
Like others have asked, how are you defining success?
For me success will be top quality OW matches full of drama in addition to high production value. I am more than certain Blizzard can deliver on this.
I don't care about viewer counts and the other guffins that everybody is worrying about. As viewers we shouldn't worry about whether these investors will get their money back or whether Blizzard will make a profit. Just chill out, enjoy the storylines and sick plays, and you'll be on your way to watching the successful OWL!
hate to say it but i really can't see it doing well just based off of the viewership of competitive overwatch right now. plus even the game casually seems to have calmed down since release. longer queue times, big names leaving the game, a lot of players i personally know have stopped playing, and i've stopped playing myself. i still watch it competitively and hope it does well, but seems doubtful
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