I'm really interested in how this one goes down, should be a great match.
7/24/18 - Wrecking Ball and Sombra Changes
There could have been a slightly better chance if let's say Korea had demolished Finnland, I still get the feeling that these Korean players (with the exception of the "alien" Carpe) tend to get into a complacent state pretty easily (just an impression of mine).
But the match vs Finnland (if you haven't watched it, you HAVE to, crazy match) surely was a wake-up call, I don't see them losing maps from here to the final, unfortunately for everyone else.
They definitely would've had more chance of qualifying, but "easily" might be a bit too much here. I don't see Sweden, China, UK or France as necessarily that much weaker than Russia on paper.
In the end at least one group was bound to be unbalanced given the format, it's just sad that it happened to Russia once again...
The point is, in this group there's one team that's surely stronger (Korea) and one that is at least at the level of France, Sweden, China, UK, US and Canada, and Russia barely lost to Finnland.
Now imagine the Los Angeles group wit Russia instead of Canada: US might beat them, but might also lose to Russia, in any case they would be probably second at worst.
Immagine the Paris group Russia instead of the UK, same as above France could both win and lose to Russia, and again they could be second.
Same story for the Bangkok group, Russia instead of Sweden...
There's no way around it, this was the hardest group of them all, and after the Korea Vs Finnland match I'd also add, by far.
Of course it was the hardest group, there's no arguing that. My point was that no matter how you shuffle the groups, there would've been one at least one with 3 "top nations" (which I consider to be on paper SK, Finland, Sweden, Russia, UK, USA, Canada, France and China. Only my opinion of course, that's debatable). The fact that this death group had SK in it makes it more unbalanced yes, but in the end someone had to be that ninth team, which won't change as long as we only get 8 at Blizzcon. It just sucks that it happened to Russia two years in a row.
I honestly believe USA this year is a little below all these other teams, mainly looking at their dps players and what they are good at, comparing to Russia (as comparing vs Korea is pointless :D ).
Who's their top Widow? Zacharee? He's good, but imo not at the level of what we are seeing from these teams.
Hanzo? Zacharee/Hydration? Honestly have no idea.
Phara? Is Hydration better than let's say SDB? He's very good but not that good.
Sinatraa is an amazing Tracer, and an amazing Zarya, but what other meta hero can he play at that level?
Meanwhile Canada has all these heroes covered better, Surefour, Agilities and hell even Mangachu was popping off during Contender on his Phara.
But then again playing "at home" (which helps), vs weaker opponents (excluding Canada), and most of all, USA guys are a bit like us Italians, just more consistently, when there's the flag to "Protect" they always over-perform.
I agree the strong department of team USA is for sure the tanks, and tbh I don't think Korean's ones are the best duo in this World Cup, Fragi + Zappis handled them quite nicely, probably not used to play together and with different styles (they even admitted that Hammond was sort of a forced choice to integrate Fate in the team).
What won the 2 matches thou (KR vs FI and FI vs RU) were the DPS, Carpe amazing as usual, Mistakes underperforming on everything but Tracer and Linkzr popping off when it mattered (last map and a half).