The Overwatch World Cup opens with a round robin group stage, with each match as a best-of-three. This will run over three days, with each team playing once a day. At the end of the group stage, the top two teams from each group will progress to the knockout stages. With only three games for each country to earn their place in the next round, every game is going to have a big influence on the tournament.
Looking ahead at these fixtures is difficult because of the limited amount of data and history available for each of these teams, so speculation is required based on what we know about the players and in some cases their qualification campaigns. Having said that, a lot of the European teams that qualified were never properly challenged, meaning we do not know their limitations or weaknesses.
Expect to see a lot of different things being tried and some really close games. While all the teams have been practising with each other to get ready for the tournament, they will not be able to replicate the same level of coordination that we see from the professional teams. There is likely to be more chaotic team fights and more room for the DPS players to shine, and it's worth mentioning that a lot of the teams do not have a full selection of players for each role either. It will be a lot of fun to watch and I would not be surprised if we see a lot of nations trying less popular heroes and some wacky strats.
Group A
1. Sweden 2. Spain 3. Canada 4. Brazil
The stand out team is obviously Sweden, who are my personal favourites to win the entire tournament. They have great skill across the roster and also have a good balance of players for each role. The only player having to shift role is Zebbosai, the main caller for Misfits, switching from Lucio to Flex-Tank. While Zebbosai has to switch from his preferred role, he is a smart player and more than capable mechanically as proven by his previous time on a DPS role. On paper, anything other than Sweden finishing top of this group would be a major upset. Sweden have the most complete roster in this tournament and will be looking to win.
On the flip side of that, Brazil look like one of the weaker teams at the event with limited professional players and a reduced level of competition in the region compared to Europe and North America. I find it hard to see them as much more than the whipping boys of the group.
That leaves two teams: Spain and Canada. The match up between Spain and Canada will most likely decide who gets the second spot in the playoffs. While I fancy Spain to edge this one as they have better talent across the roster, you cannot ignore the Surefour factor. Despite limited success with Cloud9, Surefour is still one of the best DPS player on the planet and if the rest of team Canada can enable him then Surefour will devastate other nations. Canada's success at this tournament will revolve around how well they can protect Surefour; their biggest issue is that all the other teams know he is the star and will be focusing him hard.
Spain have a good selection of experienced talent in HarryHook, BromaS and Winghaven. Adding in HarryHook's former Crack Clan Team Fortress 2 teammate Pescanova gives a couple of these players experience playing together before. It wont be a major factor of course, but with these little edges and having an all-competitive-player roster, I fancy Spain as a dark horse for this event that could upset some of the big dogs.
Group B
1. Russia 2. USA 3. Germany 4. Chile
Every tournament in every game always has one group deemed 'The Group of Death', and while a cliche that is exactly what Group B is. With the exception of Chile this group is filled with giants. Despite Chile qualifying for the Americas their chances are limited. In a similar vein to Brazil, they do not have the same level of competition regularly available to them to contest such a difficult group.
Between the three other countries any two of them could qualify and this will be one of the most likely groups to see tiebreakers required. I can see the Russians edging it, as they have a lot of talent and experience on their side. ShaDowBurn is the stand out, famed for his Genji play, but the key will be the backup he has; with Rubikon, Unfixed and cYpheR they have an experienced support system to give ShaDowBurn chances to slice his way through enemy back lines.
Germany should not be ruled out though. While they do not have as many stars as some of the other teams, they still have quality players across the roster. Ultimately I think Russia and the USA will have too much quality for Germany to overcome, but their greatest strength is having someone like INTERNETHULK due to his skill at initiating fights and a great motivational factor on comms. INTERNETHULK on Winston vs. ShaDowBurn on Genji will be an awesome match-up if it happens.
I can see the USA doing well as they have a lot of talent across the roster. Not just in the obvious places with Seagull and Talespin, but Adam is also a great support. MESR is one of the best tanks around at the moment and will be crucial, particularly in the match-up against Germany where he will have INTERNETHULK and skipjack to contest with. It seems like a lot of people are ready to blame ster if things go wrong for the USA, but despite what Twitch chat will inevitably say, ster is not the problem. Ster is a solid support; while I do not think the USA will win the tournament, their loss will be due to a greater outclassing, not because of the streamer on support.
The biggest issue facing all the teams in this group is that whichever team finishes second will most likely play Sweden in the quarter final. Although you obviously have to play the best teams at some point, it is better to avoid them for as long as possible to get further in the tournament and give your team more time to gain experience with each other. This makes qualifying important but securing that top seed crucial for each team in the long term. Expect to see hard fought games across the board.
Group C
1. Finland 2. South Korea 3. Australia 4. Chinese Taipei
This is another group with a clear favourite, Finland. The roster is littered with talent and much like Sweden in Group A, anything less than first place in this group for Finland would be a major upset. A lot of fan favourites fill out the roster, with star DPS players Taimou and zappis as well as Europe's best Roadhog in hymzi. Finland will undoubtedly go far in this tournament and while somewhat low on main supports and Reinhardt players, the roster should have the mechanical skill and game knowledge to transfer across to fill these roles. zappis has previous experience on Ana from Ninjas in Pyjamas' time with the 3-3 line-up. A truly formidable roster.
This leaves a single place for the remaining three teams to contest. Looking at the South Korean team there are a lot of players from Lunatic-Hai, who made a big impression on a wider audience following the APAC and APEX tournaments. I am excited to see EscA and Miro play again and they bring that star quality that will elevate South Korea above the rest.
Australia will surprise a lot of people with how well they play, but I do not think they have the quality across the roster to make it out of the groups. yuki and termo will be the players to watch on this team. I do not think this will be enough to upset the more established teams but with the lack of knowledge around Australian players they could shock some of the other teams. At APAC and APEX we saw some of the top teams in Europe struggle early on against the Asian teams and the surprise factor will have played a large part in this. With only three games deciding who goes through and who doesn't, there is good potential for upsets here.
Speaking of upsets, the Chinese Taipei team is a complete unknown for me. It seems likely they will suffer the same fate other countries that do not boast the same level of competition as North America and Europe. Nonetheless, they do have four players from the same professional team which will help with cohesion, and the Chinese Taipei will benefit from the surprise factor in a similar way to the Australians. While unlikely, you never know what will happen on LAN.
Group D
1. France 2. China 3. Thailand 4. Singapore
Group D will be an interesting group because there are no real stand out teams as in the other groups. There are a lot of unknown quantities in this group for me. Singapore and Thailand seem like the weaker teams on paper but word on the street is Thailand have a unique way of playing, swapping roles a lot. Maybe this will pay off for them, maybe it wont. It is hard to say, as they have never come up against France's players before. This is the most fascinating part of the World Cup, watching players who would not normally play with each other play against teams of players they would not normally get a chance to play against.
While anything can happen I think France and China's experience will prevail. On paper you could argue China have a better team than France as they have more professional players, but we saw in the qualifiers that France made good use of their limited professional players, playing a 3-3 set up for a fair amount of it. It was a more stable, robust, reliable formation that enabled them to overcome all opponents and I think this will give them the stability to finish top of this group.
Despite Group D having the lowest skill of any of the groups, there are a lot of different and new things to watch here and every series has the potential to end in an upset.
One thing is for certain, we are going to see a lot of great Overwatch from some of the world's best players. We will also be introduced to a whole range of new talent we have not had exposure to yet. It will be a great show and spectacle, and I cannot wait to see what surprises the matches bring.
You can catch all the action on the official BlizzCon stream and we will have the match ticker updated with all the results. Stayed tuned for some great Overwatch action from every corner of the globe.
Xavier 'CommanderX' Hardy is a former top level TeamFortress2 Caster and Analyst. Follow @Xavierhardy8